Lukashenka Destroys Kremlin's Version: ISW Assesses Consequences

The words of the dictator contradict Putin's statements.

Dictator Lukashenka has undermined the Kremlin's narratives about Ukraine's involvement with his statement that the attackers from Crocus City Hall first fled towards Belarus. He was probably trying to prevent discussions about the attackers' hypothetical links to his country by pointing to the role of Belarusian security forces in the arrests of the suspects.

Analysts of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have paid attention to this. We reminded you that on March 26, Lukashenka said that the shooters were planning to flee from Bryansk region of Russia to Belarus, but the country had introduced a reinforced security regime. This forced the attackers to change their course to the Russian-Ukrainian border.

"Lukashenka's assumption that the attackers were heading towards Belarus before Belarusian and Russian security services forced them to change direction categorically contradicts Putin's claims about the attackers' planned escape," the analysts said.

They noted that the March 23 geolocation video shows Russian military forces capturing the four attackers in a forested area along the E101 highway about 20 kilometres southeast of the Russian city of Bryansk. The location of the footage in question is about 95 kilometres from the Ukrainian border, or 130 kilometres from where the E101 crosses into Ukraine. This location is about 124 kilometres from the Belarusian border and about 25 kilometres from the A-240 highway leading to Homel, Belarus.

According to Lukashenka's statement, the attackers initially travelled along the A-240 highway towards Belarus, but saw roadblocks or other objects and changed course eastwards along forest roads to the E101 highway.

"The assumption that the attackers were travelling to Belarus, probably to seek refuge there, could have had devastating political consequences for Lukashenka and his regime. It would raise questions about why they thought they would be safer there, and who they thought might receive them there," the analysts said.

"Although Lukashenka's statement undermines the existing Kremlin narrative, it reduces his vulnerability to Kremlin attempts to use non-public information about the attackers' initial escape plans to pressure him in the future," ISW added.