Is The Kremlin Really Preparing To Attack Kyiv From Belarus?

Analysis by a military expert.

The other day, Russian media reported that Putin allegedly “sensed the weakness” of Ukraine and is “ready to go to victory,” including launching another attack on Kyiv from Belarus and trying to capture Kharkiv.

How realistic is this from a military point of view? Ukrainian military-political observer of the Information Resistance group Oleksandr Kovalenko answered this question for the website Charter97.org:

— As of now, this is completely unrealistic. Let me explain: in 2022, a 40,000-strong group of personnel was formed on the territory of Belarus, which took part in the attack on Kyiv. These were elite units, landing troops, and representatives of special forces. These were the most trained, equipped and staffed units.

They had support from both air and ground. What result? None! Literally a month later they fled back and left the Northern bridgehead altogether.

From this we can conclude that even elite landing troops and special forces (with all the support) are in no way capable of carrying out such a combat mission.

— How many personnel can fulfill such a task?

— Military theory immediately comes into play here. If we are talking about a large millionaire city, then everything depends on what plans they have for it: to engage in urban battles or to encircle it.

This determines the necessary amount of resources. For the small town of Avdiivka, the Russian occupiers needed more than 120 thousand human resources. And this without the cost of mechanized components! How many should go on Kyiv then? There is no such group anywhere near the borders of Ukraine now.

In order to advance on Kyiv, Putin needs about 500 thousand troops in the state of today's Russian army. By the way, in Ukraine in the combat zone on all four bridgeheads there are 470 thousand. The Russian military-industrial complex and mobilization system are literally bursting at the seams to compensate for the losses that the Russian Federation suffers in Ukraine every month.

How can they, in such conditions, be able to assemble a group that could advance, encircle and capture Kyiv? No way.

— Then for what purpose does something like this appear in the Russian media?

— Information and psychological special operation (IPSO). For the purpose of intimidation, creating panic, these are very important elements during war.

Panic, chaos, creation of threats, moral and psychological pressure are used, among other things, to influence the enemy’s society. The Russians are constantly doing this: let’s attack Odesa, Kharkov, capture the Sumy region, etc. They constantly press psychologically.

In any case, even if there is a threat of this kind, there is a regiment named after Kastus Kalinouski in Ukraine. Just like Russian volunteers, they can begin to take certain actions against Lukashenka’s criminal regime. With the aim of overthrowing him. Who knows, anything can happen.