Political Scientist: That’s It, Lukashenka Has Exhausted Himself

2023 became a year of loneliness for the dictator.

Lukashenka is desperately trying to distance himself from Russia, weakened by the war in Ukraine, but his attempts will not succeed. This opinion was expressed in an interview with the website Charter97.org by military and political expert, head of the Ukrainian Center for Military Legal Studies, Oleksandr Musiyenko.

— What main events would you mark in 2023?

— In the first place I will put the ongoing Russian aggression against Ukraine, which affects many things in the world. For example, on the balance of power and the security situation. The second development, following from the first, is the strengthening of NATO's Eastern flank and the security of Finland against the backdrop of Putin's threats, as this changes the security architecture in Europe.

Next is the Hamas attack on Israel, which impacts the international landscape. I will also highlight the attempt to improve relations between the United States and China.

It is worth remembering the rebellion of Yevgeny Prigozhin in Russia. A precedent that demonstrated that this can happen in the Russian Federation. This is an argument for skeptics who said that this is impossible in the Russia.

Another extraordinary event that is worth mentioning is Russia’s request for shells from North Korea. It doesn’t often happen when a state that is considered strong asks a weaker one for weapons.

Personally, I am also interested in the victory in Argentina of President Javier Miley, who declares libertarianism and plans to implement it in his position. For the first time in the history of Argentina, a person who openly declares himself a libertarian became president. Before that there were conservatives, neoconservatives, liberals and so on. I'm wondering what all this will lead to.

— You are also monitoring the situation in Belarus. What was this year like for the Lukashenka regime?

— It seems to me that there were attempts on Lukashenka’s part to distance himself from Russia and Putin. It is obvious that the Belarusian dictator is not confident in Putin’s future and that the Russian Federation will always be a reliable shoulder for him to preserve the regime.

Lukashenka is looking for ways to resume economic ties. Let's remember his trips to the Middle East and Africa. A large Belarusian delegation was in Vietnam a few weeks ago. This is an interesting point, which indicates that perhaps Lukashenka’s dictatorial regime is becoming disillusioned with what is happening, realizing that Russia has a lot of problems.

Let me emphasize that certain processes indicate that he is not sure whether Russia will support Belarus. By the way, this is a signal for Belarusians, because the prospects for the Russian economy are far from rosy. Especially after the 12th package of sanctions.

It is obvious that the Belarusian regime is now looking for alternatives both in the economy and in other aspects. Plus, you need to understand that after the adventures with the “Wagnerites,” Lukashenka is completely disappointed, because he understands that no one will talk to him. After all, he gave some “guarantees” to Prigozhin, and it didn’t work.

You know, I think that for Lukashenka 2023 is a year of loneliness and stagnation. He cannot offer any ideas, anything new. Lukashenka has exhausted himself as a politician, as a figure. That's it, he can't do anything anymore. Desperate attempts to find some markets, some connections look simply ridiculous.

— I would like to hear your forecast for 2024. What will it be like?

— In geopolitical terms, next year will not be easy. First, Russian aggression against Ukraine continues. Secondly, the US elections, which will influence world events. Thirdly, it will be largely indicative from the point of view of the general continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war at the current stage. It seems to me that closer to the end of 2024, clearer prospects will be visible in what foreseeable future the war may end.

I still predict that the budget that Russia has allocated for the defense industry is unlikely to be enough for a technological breakthrough. The Russian economy and military-industrial complex will weaken.

Ukraine, together with Europe, will build up the military-industrial complex and work on a technological and innovative breakthrough in the field of existing or promising weapons. In the field of drones. I believe that next year we will see a breakthrough in the production of drones and robotic systems in general.

I think that 2024 will be the year of increased weapons production. There will be a final break in the paradigm of those political courses that many politicians in European countries had, who believed that it was necessary to invest in different areas, but did not pay due attention to weapons and security. The breakdown of this paradigm is an important moment, especially for Europe.

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