Oleksandr Musiyenko: Lukashenka Gets That He'll Become Retaliation Target

The political scientist spoke about four possible scenarios for the overthrow of the dictator.

On Tuesday, at a meeting with security officials, Lukashenka spoke about three scenarios for his overthrow. Why did the Belarusian dictator talk about this now?

Charter97.org asked Oleksandr Musienko, a political expert and head of the Ukrainian Center for Military and Legal Studies, this question:

— The fact is that Lukashenka leaves a backup option in case he needs to betray Putin. To do this, he needs to publicly talk about certain threats from time to time. After all, he does not always clearly specify, points with his finger, but speaks very implicitly.

In my opinion, Lukashenko now understands the seriousness of what Belarus got involved in when he allowed the deployment of nuclear weapons on the territory of the country. But this is not the ultimate goal, now it is necessary to blackmail Poland and the Baltic states. It looked like "we have nuclear weapons, we use it in case". It seems to me that Lukashenka has begun to receive certain signals that if nuclear weapons are used from the territory of Belarus, then retaliation may be against him.

— Lukashenka accused Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs and Commander of the Internal Troops Mikalai Karpenkou and Minister of Internal Affairs Ivan Kubrakou of "excessive praise of the Wagnerites". What does it mean?

— We are well aware that the Wagnerites who are now in Belarus perform not only the tasks of training troops but can be used to remove Lukashenka from power if he does not comply with any of Moscow's orders.

At the same time, comrades Karpenkou and Kubrakou are delighted with the Wagnerites, they conduct propaganda activities about how "good" they are. I think Lukashenka realizes that the Wagnerites make infiltration of Russian agents possible, which at some point corrupts or intimidates Belarusian officials.

Russia's influence is gaining leverage. Lukashenka is afraid of this, fighting for his political survival.

He always keeps in mind what will happen if, after all, the Putin regime weakens, falls. How can he get out of this situation so as not to go to the bottom with this Putin's stone? You know, when the factor of Russian influence threatens his regime personally, he begins to react.

— What scenarios for the overthrow of Lukashenka do you think are real in the foreseeable future?

— I see four scenarios. The first is that at some point he may leave on his own. The second is the possibility of a coup by the security services, if Lukashenka suddenly returns to the topic of the participation of Belarusian troops in the war against Ukraine. Third, you should never depreciate society. There have been protests in Belarus more than once. They can be repeated and lead to a change of power.

The fourth is the removal and arrest of Lukashenko by corrupt and Russian-oriented enforcers. This may happen when the Kremlin thinks that Lukashenka wants to betray him.

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