Ukrainian Armed Forces Colonel: Putin Made His Last Mongoose Jump

The Ukrainian officer summed up the results of two years of war.

On the second anniversary of the Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Charter97.org spoke with Ukrainian military analyst, reserve colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Petro Chernik. He explained the situation in which the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the occupation army of the Russian Federation find themselves today:

— Let me start with the fact that the Russian army, which was considered legendary before the start of this war, has become mythical. The Ukrainian army, which was considered mythical, has become legendary.

At the time the aggression began, we were the 22nd army in the world in terms of indicators: we have neither nuclear weapons nor a numerical advantage in any way. Nevertheless, we have been holding back a monster for two years, which, by and large, does not have the results that it would like.

At one time, the Russians flaunted their army, which could reach Berlin, and at one time even reached Paris. Now it’s stuck in Ukraine. Even if we take into account the loss of Adviivka, these are the operational indicators of a mechanized regiment.

I would like to emphasize that on October 7, an entire Russian army corps was killed near Avdiivka, which means more than 16 thousand killed, at least 30 thousand wounded, 364 tanks and 748 infantry fighting vehicles destroyed. Entire corps! During the 10 years of the war in Afghanistan, the USSR lost 15.5 thousand killed and only 120 tanks.

However, we soberly understand that the stakes are very high for Putin. He cannot accept defeat in Ukraine the way it is likely to happen. At this moment we are moving into trench warfare mode. I honestly don't know how long this will last. It's all too serious.

— What does Ukraine need to turn the tide of the war?

— We need our allies to provide a large number of aircraft and missiles. First of all, ATACMS long-range and ballistic missiles.

— Do Ukrainian allies have this?

— Yes, more than 4,600 F-16 units were produced. More than three thousand of them are in working order. There are from 2 to 3 thousand ATACMS missiles in warehouses, which is a lot. We are at a bifurcation point: the old system no longer works, and the new one has not yet been created.

For us, this war is existential. We understand that if we capitulate, they will commit another genocide on us. Putin speaks about this directly. As long as we breathe, we will fight with them for our independence.

— If 2023 passed in anticipation of a counter-offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, then what can we expect in 2024?

— The trench warfare that is going on now. This will last until we have truly serious weapons.

— Would you please highlight the key achievements of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the two years of war?

— The most important thing is that we retained our state. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are inseparable from the state. As the German military theorist Carl von Clausewitz said: “War is merely the continuation of politics by other means.”

The main goal that Putin set for himself was to eliminate Ukrainian statehood. They understand that without Ukraine the Russian empire is impossible. So the Russians made the last mongoose jump to restore their supranational status. Without Ukraine they are finished, and they understand this very well. The only question is that this end will not be immediate.

However, a divine phenomenon may occur. A meteorite already flew towards Chelyabinsk in 2013. I'm not kidding, it's true. It's a shame that it didn't reach the target. In general, something may happen that we cannot imagine now.

— Which operations by the Armed Forces of Ukraine would you highlight?

— I would highlight three fundamental aspects. Firstly, in 2023, the creation of a 10 x 10 kilometer bridgehead in the Zaporizhzhia region. This is our serious success. Secondly, the beginning of the formation of a bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro river in the Kherson region. Thirdly, drone strikes on the oil and gas structure of the Russian Federation.

At the moment, our main goal is to hold the front line that we have, and accumulate as many high-quality weapons as possible.

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